Trump Approval at 44% Among Likely Voters, Down Slightly From Mid-September

The reading is slightly lower than in a separate Honest Poll survey of 1,633 Registered Voters conducted September 7-13 for Veteran Action, which found 45% approval among Likely Voters and 43% among Registered Voters, and is close to the September National Tracking Poll conducted August 29-September 1, which found 42% among Likely Voters and 41% among Registered Voters. Intensity follows a similar pattern: 21% of Registered Voters strongly approve, matching the late-August survey and below the 25% in the mid-September poll, while 46% strongly disapprove, compared with 47% in late August and 44% in mid-September. Differences in the overall approval figure between the three surveys are one to two points, within the margin of error.

Trump's approval in this survey is higher than in the polling averages, even though the Democratic lead on the generic ballot is slightly larger. The same survey finds Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 11 points among Registered Voters, 51% to 40%, alongside a net approval rating for Trump of -15 points. The Silver Bulletin polling average showed his net approval at -21.9 as of October 9, with Democrats leading the generic ballot by 8.9 points as of October 8, and Ballotpedia's Polling Index showed 39% approving and 60% disapproving at the end of September. That makes the Honest Poll's Democratic lead about two points larger than the average and its net approval rating about seven points less negative. In each of the three Honest Poll surveys since late August, the Democratic lead among Registered Voters has been 10 to 11 points and Trump's net approval has been between -13 and -16.

Approval of Trump divides sharply by party. Eighty percent (80%) of Republicans approve, including 41% who strongly approve, compared with 79% in late August, and 81% of 2024 Trump voters approve, the same as in late August. Among Democrats, 86% disapprove, as do 89% of Harris voters. Voters who describe themselves as independents disapprove 69% to 30%, including 57% who strongly disapprove.

Age shows some of the widest variation. Millennials are the most approving generation at 47%, compared with 43% of Generation X and 39% of both Generation Z and Baby Boomers. By age group, 48% of voters aged 30 to 39 approve, compared with 39% of those aged 18 to 29 and 40% of those 65 and older, and strong disapproval ranges from 37% among voters aged 30 to 39 to 52% among those 65 and older. Men approve 44% to 55%, compared with 41% to 58% among women. White voters approve 47% to 53%, while 35% of Hispanic voters and 27% of Black voters approve.

Voters were also asked whether Trump should have pushed harder to get his agenda done, even if that meant going beyond traditional limits on presidential power, whether he should have stayed within those limits, or whether he has handled it about right. Fifty-three percent (53%) of Registered Voters say he should have stayed within traditional limits, while 22% say he should have pushed harder and 15% say he has handled it about right, and Likely Voters answer 53%, 23% and 16%. Republicans are divided three ways, with 31% saying he should have pushed harder, 32% saying he should have stayed within limits and 30% saying he has handled it about right, and 2024 Trump voters answer 33%, 31% and 29%. Democrats (69%) and Harris voters (72%) overwhelmingly say he should have stayed within limits. Younger voters are more likely to want him to push harder, at 28% of those aged 18 to 29 and 30% of those aged 30 to 39, compared with 16% of those 65 and older.

Thirty percent (30%) of Registered Voters, and 33% of Likely Voters, say the country is headed in the right direction, while 64% of Registered Voters and 62% of Likely Voters say it has gotten off on the wrong track. The Registered Voter right-direction figure is unchanged from late August, when the wrong-track figure was 62%. Among 2024 Trump voters, 53% say right direction and 39% say wrong track, compared with 58% and 32% in late August, while 86% of Harris voters say wrong track.

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