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The Democratic Party holds a solid lead over Republicans in the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
A new national survey by The Honest Poll finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 52% of Likely Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while 41% would vote for the Republican. Two percent (2%) say they would vote for some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are not sure.
Pushing undecided voters toward a choice changes the race only slightly: 53% would vote Democratic and 43% Republican, with 2% for another candidate and 2% not sure.
The Democratic lead rests on stronger party loyalty than Republicans currently command. Ninety-two percent (92%) of voters who say they backed Kamala Harris in 2024 would vote Democratic for Congress today, compared with 85% of 2024 Trump voters who would vote Republican — a seven-point gap in party unity.
Voters not affiliated with either major party are not moving toward Democrats so much as they are undecided. Just 9% of independents would vote Republican and 20% would vote Democratic, while 27% say they would vote for some other candidate and 45% — by far the largest share of any group measured — are not sure. Independents also show little sign of turning out: only 13% describe themselves as "extremely" enthusiastic about voting this November and 10% as "very" enthusiastic, while 38% say they are not enthusiastic at all, more than three times the rate among Republicans (10%) or Democrats (11%).
Overall, 41% of Likely Voters call themselves extremely enthusiastic about voting in November, the largest single group, followed by 28% who are very enthusiastic. Democrats hold an edge on the top measure of enthusiasm: 40% of Democrats say they are extremely enthusiastic, compared with 36% of Republicans. The gap is wider by 2024 vote than by party label — 43% of Harris voters describe themselves as extremely enthusiastic, against 35% of Trump voters. The same pattern shows up in the horse race itself: voters who are extremely enthusiastic, the largest bloc of the electorate, favor Democrats on the generic ballot by 58% to 39%, while the next tier down, voters who are only "very" enthusiastic, favor Republicans, 49% to 46%.
Sentiment on the direction of the country remains deeply negative. Thirty percent (30%) of registered voters, and 33% of Likely Voters, say the country is headed in the right direction, while 62% of both groups say it has gotten off on the wrong track. Even among 2024 Trump voters, only 58% say the country is headed in the right direction and 32% say it is on the wrong track — more than three times the 10% of 2024 Harris voters who say the same about right direction, with 88% of Harris voters calling it wrong track.
President Trump's job approval remains underwater. Forty-two percent (42%) of Likely Voters approve of the job he is doing as president, while 57% disapprove, including 48% who strongly disapprove against 24% who strongly approve. Approval is highest among white voters (44%) and lowest among Black voters (32%), with Hispanic and Asian voters both at 37%.
The survey of 951 Registered Voters, including 812 Likely Voters, was conducted August 29-September 1, 2026, by The Honest Poll, combining an online panel with live Interactive Voice Response calls, weighted to match known demographic and political benchmarks. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.4 percentage points at a 95% level of confidence; the margin of error is higher for subgroups.
