JD Vance and Kamala Harris Lead Crowded 2028 Primary Fields

This poll was commissioned and sponsored by Veteran Action. The Honest Poll had input in and final editorial control of the questionnaire, and conducted all fieldwork, weighting, and analysis independently. Veteran Action had no role in data collection, analysis, or reporting.

Veteran Action, the nonprofit veterans' advocacy organization that commissioned The Honest Poll's September 7-13 survey of 1,633 Registered Voters, is releasing a second set of findings from that survey — this time on the shape of the 2028 presidential primaries and the broader political environment heading into the midterms, rather than the veterans' legislation covered in the first release.

Vice President JD Vance leads the Republican primary field with 41% support, nearly double his closest rival. Former Vice President Kamala Harris leads the Democratic field at 32%, also comfortably ahead of a crowded group of rivals. Neither has yet consolidated a majority of their party's primary electorate.

AT A GLANCE

● JD Vance — 41% in the Republican primary. Vance leads Donald Trump Jr. (22%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (16%) by wide margins, with Governor Ron DeSantis (7%) and the rest of the field in single digits.

● Kamala Harris — 32% in the Democratic primary. Harris leads Governor Gavin Newsom (20%) and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (13%), with Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (9%) further back in a fractured field.

● 2028 primary intention — 47% plan to vote Democratic, 38% Republican. The rest are undecided (9% neither, 6% not sure), meaning both fields above are drawn from a primary electorate that itself leans toward the Democratic side this cycle.

● Generic congressional ballot — Democrats 50%, Republicans 40%. Voters favor a Democratic-controlled Congress by 10 points heading into the midterms, a lead that holds at 9 points among Likely Voters (51%-42%).

● Trump job approval — 43% approve, 56% disapprove. Strong disapproval (44%) outpaces strong approval (25%) by nearly 2 to 1.

● Right direction / wrong track — 35% right direction, 58% wrong track. Just over a third of voters think the country is headed the right way.

● Iran military conflict — 69% say end it, 21% say continue it. Voters favor bringing the conflict to a close by more than 3 to 1.

● Top issue — inflation and the cost of living, 33%. Jobs and the economy rank second at 25%.

Vance's strength comes disproportionately from older Republican primary voters — he leads with Baby Boomers (49%) — while Donald Trump Jr. runs strongest with the youngest cohort, leading Vance among Generation Z Republican primary voters, 51% to 28%. Rubio (16%) and DeSantis (7%) trail well behind, and no other candidate tested — Nikki Haley, Tulsi Gabbard, or Ted Cruz — reaches 3% support.

Harris's lead is comfortable but not commanding: Newsom (20%) and Buttigieg (13%) combine for a third of the primary electorate, and 12% remain undecided. Harris performs best with Millennial voters (39%) and runs weaker with Baby Boomers (23%), where Newsom (18%) and Buttigieg (20%) narrow the gap considerably.

The horse-race numbers come against a difficult political backdrop for the president. Just 35% of voters say the country is headed in the right direction, while 58% say it's on the wrong track. Trump's job approval sits underwater, 43% approve to 56% disapprove, with strong disapproval (44%) far outweighing strong approval (25%). On the president's ongoing military conflict with Iran, voters favor ending it over continuing it by more than 3 to 1, 69% to 21%. Voters are also closely split on their choice in the 2024 election itself, with 43% each recalling having voted for Trump and Harris (46%-45% among Likely Voters, a slight Harris edge) — a reminder of how evenly divided this electorate remains, even as it currently leans toward both an opposition-party primary and an opposition-party Congress.

Inflation and the cost of living remains the electorate's dominant concern, cited by 33% of voters as the most important issue heading into the midterms, ahead of jobs and the economy (25%) and crime and public safety (11%).

“This polling proves veterans' issues carry broad bipartisan support. Veteran Action will lead the veteran policy debate in the 2028 presidential election. Every candidate who comes through my home state of Iowa should expect to answer for where they stand on veterans.”

 — Mark Lucas, Founder & President of Veteran Action

“Vance and Harris are still the clear leaders in their primaries, but those leads are not as commanding as they once looked. Both would be smart to sharpen their platforms — this electorate is hungry for economic populism and institutional reform, and the candidate who speaks to that most directly is the one who'll turn a plurality into a majority.”

 — Mark R. Mitchell, Founder and Head Pollster, The Honest Poll

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