Democrats Lead by 13 Points Among Likely Voters as Harris Voters Report Far More Enthusiasm Than Trump Voters

Democrats continue to lead Republicans in the race for control of the U.S. House of Representatives as the midterm election enters its final week.

A new national survey by The Honest Poll finds that if the elections for the U.S. House were held today, 52% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district and 40% for the Republican. Three percent (3%) say they would vote for some other candidate and 5% are not sure. Among Likely Voters, Democrats lead 54% to 41%, with 2% choosing another candidate and 3% not sure.

The Democratic lead has widened over the past two months, though not in a straight line. Among Registered Voters it was 10 points in the September tracker (50% to 40%), 10 points in an Honest Poll survey conducted September 7-13 for Veteran Action (50% to 40%), 11 points in early October (51% to 40%) and is 12 points now, with Republican support at 40% all four times. Among Likely Voters the lead was 11 points (52% to 41%), 9 points in the Veteran Action survey (51% to 42%), 12 points (53% to 41%) and is now 13 points. The Veteran Action survey asked who respondents would vote for if the election for Congress were held today, without naming the parties in the question, and the current survey asked voters who have already cast a ballot to say how they voted. It also did not include the leaner follow-up used in early October.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of Registered Voters, and 39% of Likely Voters, say they have already voted, and another 36% say they will definitely vote. Voters who have already voted favor Democrats 64% to 33%, while those who say they will definitely vote are evenly split, 49% Democratic to 48% Republican. Democrats have cast more of their votes: 44% of Harris voters have voted, compared with 29% of Trump voters. Half of Baby Boomers (50%) have voted, compared with 23% to 29% of Generation X, Generation Z and Millennials. Among Likely Voters, 44% plan to vote in person on Election Day, down from 52% in early October, while 31% plan to vote in person before Election Day, up from 23%, and 23% plan to vote by mail. Republicans are likelier to wait for Election Day, 54% to 37% for Democrats.

Enthusiasm shows the widest gap between the parties. Forty-nine percent (49%) of Registered Voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual for a midterm election, 34% say about the same and 15% say less enthusiastic. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Harris voters are more enthusiastic than usual, compared with 46% of Trump voters, and 17% of Trump voters say they are less enthusiastic, compared with 10% of Harris voters. By party, 59% of Democrats and 44% of Republicans are more enthusiastic. Voters who are more enthusiastic than usual favor Democrats 62% to 35%. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Baby Boomers are more enthusiastic, compared with 41% of Millennials and 42% of Generation Z. The question is new this wave, so there is no earlier reading for comparison.

Voters are likelier to describe their vote as opposition to the president than support for him. Forty-one percent (41%) of Registered Voters say their vote for Congress is mainly a vote to oppose Donald Trump, 24% say it is mainly a vote to support him, and 31% say it is not mainly about Trump. Seventy-two percent (72%) of Democratic voters call it opposition, while 56% of Republican voters call it support and 38% say it is not mainly about Trump. Voters who say it is not mainly about Trump divide 49% Republican and 39% Democratic.

Party loyalty remains strong on both sides. Ninety-six percent (96%) of Democrats would vote Democratic, compared with 92% of Republicans who would vote Republican, and 94% of Harris voters would vote Democratic, compared with 88% of Trump voters who would vote Republican, a six-point gap in unity, down from seven points in early October. Independents remain mostly uncommitted: 38% would vote Democratic, 10% Republican, 19% for another candidate and 34% are not sure.

Generation X now leans Democratic, 50% to 40%, after splitting evenly in early October, and Generation Z favors Democrats 53% to 38%, narrower than the 60% to 28% found then. Women under 40 are the most Democratic age and gender group, at 64% to 26% compared with 50% to 38% among men under 40, and 56% of them call their vote mainly opposition to Trump. White voters remain narrowly Republican, 48% to 45%, while Hispanic voters favor Democrats 58% to 33% and Black voters 79% to 11%.